Will PPI YoY be 6.2% in October?

Analysis

The latest official record shows final demand producer prices up 6.3 percent for the 12 months ended in September, before seasonal adjustment. That was the largest 12-month increase since a 6.4 percent rise in December 2022. A reading of exactly 6.2 percent for October would need a drop of one tenth of a point from there. The monthly picture does not point toward cooling. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said final demand rose 1.3 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, after 0.5 percent in August and 0.2 percent in July. It called September the largest advance since a 1.7 percent rise in March 2022. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected 0.6 percent on the month and 5.5 percent annually, according to a report on the release, so the data has been running hotter than forecasters thought. That does not make 6.2 percent impossible. The October figure has not been published, and the BLS says earlier months get revised as late reports and corrections arrive. Those revisions could shift the starting point. The forecast leans against this exact outcome because it is one narrow value, and the evidence I have does not show a drop of that size. The release is scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. What to watch is the monthly change in October final demand prices. A sharp reversal of September's jump would be the thing that makes 6.2 percent a real contender.