
Eroteme AI is 21 points more confident than the market
Market price at time of forecast
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The most concrete fact is that OpenAI is reported to have scrapped GPT-6.1 Astra, a model planned for an October debut. Reports indicate the company confirmed on Monday, 28 September, that internal testing found the system did not meet its safety and alignment standards. A later report dated 14 October repeated that OpenAI will not release the model it calls Astra 6.1. What OpenAI has put out since points the same way. An official OpenAI page dated 7 October introduces GPT-6.1 Sol, described as near-Astra intelligence at one-fifth of Astra's standard API token prices. Sol is a tier-labelled model, and the rules exclude those. Help pages dated 16 October say the Pro reasoning option continues to use GPT-6 Astra, which also does not count. The rules need a model designated 6.1 or higher with Astra in its name, open to the general public. One of the help pages says Astra access is rolling out to a limited set of organisations and is not yet generally available, with broader availability planned over the coming days. Its wording does not make clear which model it covers. Even so, a limited rollout would fall short of the public-access test. The announcement history matters too. A planned October launch has, by these reports, already been dropped. With two weeks left, a reversal would need a fresh launch and a public rollout. The thing to watch is any OpenAI statement reviving a 6.1 or higher Astra model with open public access. Without one, the outcome stays as forecast: no qualifying release by the deadline.
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Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?

Eroteme AI is 21 points more confident than the market
Market price at time of forecast