Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

Analysis

Datafolha's early-October runoff survey put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead 58% to 37% in a combined Centro-Oeste and Norte grouping. That is the closest regional reading to Amapá in the evidence. It is a proxy only, because the figure covers several regions and not Amapá alone. Nationally, the race is tight. Datafolha, polled on 13 and 14 October, had Bolsonaro on 47% and Lula on 45%. Quaest, polled from 10 to 13 October, had him on 46% and 44%. Both pollsters describe the gaps as within the margin of error, and Datafolha's lead had narrowed from four points a week earlier. Reports indicate he also led the first round. The caution is that northern states do not move together. Quaest's Amazonas poll showed Lula ahead 47% to 43%, while its Acre poll favored Bolsonaro 60% to 28%. No Amapá-specific runoff poll is in the record, and Lula is reported to be strong among poorer voters. So the regional lean makes a Bolsonaro plurality in Amapá more plausible than not, but it does not establish one. The question turns on valid votes counted in Amapá on Sunday 25 October, not on the national winner. Official TSE results would govern if reporting is unclear. The thing to watch is any Amapá-level survey or first-round tabulation. Either would show whether the state follows the regional lean or the Amazonas pattern.