Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?

Analysis

The most concrete fact is the latest displayed chart. For the week beginning Oct 12, 2026, OpenAI ranked third with 18.5% of text requests, behind DeepSeek at 24.4% and Google at 19.7%. Z.ai was fourth at 12.2%. Those figures come from the chart's own display, which counts requests, not tokens. That is the main reason the forecast leans toward OpenAI at third. The gap between OpenAI and the labs below it looks wide, while the gap to Google above it is small. The contest is mostly between OpenAI and Google for second and third. The picture is not settled, though. In the Oct 5 to 11 week, OpenAI was second at 18.6% and Google third at 17.8%. So the two have swapped places in consecutive weeks on shares that sit within about two points of each other. Reports also say Chinese models took about 48% of developer requests in that earlier week, against a combined 40.3% for OpenAI, Google and Anthropic. That is a reminder that the rankings are moving. The Oct 19 to Oct 25 figures are not yet displayed. The chart uses trailing windows ending with the most recent complete daily bucket, so the final reading depends on the days still to come. The thing to watch is OpenAI against Google. If OpenAI's share edges back above Google's, it ends up second and this outcome fails. If Google's share rises further, OpenAI stays third.