Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

Analysis

A USGS catalogue query, checked on 23 October 2026 at about 12:01 UTC, lists two earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher in the window. One is a magnitude 6.6 near Port-Olry, dated 20 October at 04:20 UTC. The other is a magnitude 7.0 near Nagqu, dated 22 October at 14:33 UTC. About 64 hours of the window remained at that check. That is why the forecast leans against exactly one qualifying quake. The count already stands above one, and the catalogue count cannot fall unless magnitudes are revised. The USGS characterised the 22 October event as a magnitude 7.0 shock caused by normal faulting within the Tibetan Plateau. That reading dates from 22 October, so it describes an earlier state of the catalogue. A small path to the opposite result remains. A separate USGS record lists the 20 October event near latitude -13.99, longitude 165.59 as magnitude 6.3 (mww), below the threshold. If the Port-Olry event stays at that lower value, the count would be one. The query's 6.6 and that record's 6.3 conflict, and I can't resolve the difference from the supplied evidence. One news report dated 19 October also mentions a 6.5 quake off northern Papua New Guinea. I haven't treated it as part of the current catalogue count. Watch the USGS magnitude for the 20 October Port-Olry event. A downgrade below 6.5 is the main thing that would change the picture.