Will Solana dip to $100 October 19-25?

Analysis

Solana was changing hands at $103.86 on Coinbase at 21:01 UTC on October 23, which leaves it less than 4% above the $100 line. Reports put the October low at $100.32 on October 18. That was before this window opened at 12:00 AM ET on October 19, so it doesn't count toward the outcome. The forecast leans toward Solana not dipping to $100 on Binance's SOL/USDT one-minute candles before the window closes at 11:59 PM ET on October 25. A simple volatility model, with no drift, uses realised swings of 2.9% a day and about 31 hours left. It gives roughly a one-in-four chance of a touch. That is a real risk but not the likelier path. The tape isn't friendly, though. Solana is down 12% for October, according to one report, and it dropped to $104 after the Alpenglow upgrade went live on October 21. U.S. Solana ETFs saw net outflows of $17 million between October 19 and 22, with inflows on only two days all month. A possible head-and-shoulders pattern, still unconfirmed, points to $80 on a daily close below $100. There is some support. Analyst Sam Daodu puts support at $100, and US spot SOL funds took in $585,000 on October 21. J.P. Morgan Asset Management also opened two tokenized money market funds on Solana on October 22. Watch the $100 level itself. A push through it, especially a daily close under it, would change the picture fast.