Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?

Analysis

Lula took 49.91% of the valid votes in Pará in the first round, against 44.5% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to reported results. That leaves Lula within a fraction of an outright majority in the state. It is the strongest state-level evidence available. Nationally the picture is tighter. Reports indicate the latest runoff polls show a technical tie. Quaest, in a survey published on 14 October, had Flávio on 46% and Lula on 44%. Datafolha, published on 8 October, had 49% to 45%. PoderData/Aya, with fieldwork from 13 to 15 October, put both at 50% of valid votes. None of these polls measures voting intention in Pará. Flávio is working the state. He campaigned in Marabá, promising what he called the largest land regularization Pará has seen and the removal of environmental obstacles. Reports say he has the backing of the governor-elect, Dr. Daniel. A swing of about five points from the first round would flip the state. That is plausible given the national movement, but it is not the base case. The runoff vote is on Sunday 25 October, and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) results will settle the question. No Pará-specific runoff poll has been supplied. The thing to watch is the early TSE count from Pará's rural interior, where Flávio's pitch is aimed. If he runs well ahead of his first-round showing there, the state's outcome could change.