Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

Analysis

Final polls published before the election silence period put Netanyahu's bloc at about 50 seats, with the opposition at 52 to 56, according to one report. The same report says neither side reaches 61. Israelis vote on Tuesday, October 27, to fill all 120 Knesset seats, so a government needs 61. The main reason for the lean is arithmetic. Arab parties are reported at 14 to 16 seats, and they sit outside both groups named in this question. That leaves the two named groups, the Likud-led parties and the Democrats, Yashar, Together and Yisrael Beiteinu, short of a majority on their own in those polls. Another report says the anti-Netanyahu camp leads most polls but falls short of a majority based on its current agreements. It also says that camp is preparing for a possible minority government. That suggests the opposition itself does not expect a clear majority. A separate report mentions some surveys giving the right-wing bloc enough seats to govern. These are contested claims, and they are not the pattern in the final polls cited above. The outcome is not closed. A large polling miss could lift either group over 61, and the supplied evidence cannot rule that out. Preliminary results are expected the day after the vote, with official results scheduled for November 4. The thing to watch is the preliminary count on October 28. If either group is near 61 once the first results come in, the picture would change quickly.