Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?

Analysis

Tate McRae's "Housewife" debuted at No. 1 on the Global Spotify chart with 5.67 million streams, reported as her biggest streaming debut yet. It has also opened at No. 1 on Australia's ARIA Singles Chart. Even so, the forecast leans against it taking the No. 2 spot on the Hot 100 dated October 31. The chart in question covers Oct. 16 to 22, which is the first full tracking week after the Thursday, Oct. 15 release. The Oct. 24 chart covers Oct. 9 to 15, so it holds only the release day. That makes this the week where a new single's numbers show up in full. That cuts in an unusual direction. A song with a full opening week behind it is more likely to debut at the very top than to sit one place below. It could also land lower if rivals hold firm. Billboard has described the single as the longest-awaited of that week's releases. The same coverage notes Zach Bryan's new EP with Lana Del Rey, and Olivia Rodrigo's "Expectations" remix with Chappell Roan. Each could take a high slot, so No. 2 is only one of several places "Housewife" could land. The evidence I have does not include U.S. streaming or sales figures for Oct. 16 to 22, so this is a lean and not a certainty. The one thing to watch is the Hot 100 itself, due to be published around Oct. 27. It will show whether "Housewife" debuts at No. 1 or somewhere else.