Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 1?

Analysis

Bitcoin was trading around $80,447 on Binance's own price page on October 25, with a 24-hour range of $79,145 to $80,928. To land the call, the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at noon ET on November 1, a Sunday, has to finish above $84,000. That means a climb of roughly 4% in about a week. The tape doesn't lean that way. Bitcoin has been struggling to hold above $80,000 after a weekend sell-off, and reports indicate spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $635.6 million in net withdrawals on October 22 and another $137.9 million on October 23, according to Farside Investors. The October 22 outflow was reported as the largest single-day outflow since June. Positioning adds to the drag. One report on Coinbase data says the biggest leveraged long cluster averaged $81,993, with 64% of those positions entered above the current price. That puts overhead supply between here and $84,000. The same report points to $77,600 as the next major support if bulls can't reclaim $81,500. The case for the other side is simple: Bitcoin is volatile and a week is a long time. The Federal Reserve meets October 27 to 28, with a decision and press conference on October 28. Traders are watching for signals on whether rates hold or tighten, and a friendly surprise could squeeze price higher fast. Still, the baseline model here treats a move that big as a stretch, and the momentum is soft. The main thing to watch is the Fed decision on October 28. If Bitcoin can retake $81,500 in its wake, the picture changes. If not, $84,000 stays out of reach.