Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?

Analysis

Eli Lilly's adjusted EPS was above $7.49 in each of the last three reported quarters: $7.54, $8.55 and $8.38. That run-rate is the main reason the forecast leans toward a beat when the company reports third-quarter results on Thursday, October 29, 2026. The date is an announcement, not a result, so nothing is settled yet. The record against analyst estimates points the same way. Reported EPS beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, by roughly 8% to 39%. Second-quarter revenue of $22.97 billion, up 47.7% year on year, topped analyst expectations by 11.4%, according to one report. Now the caveats, because PR gloss won't cover them. Other estimates sit below the $7.49 line. One provider puts adjusted EPS near $6.70, with a median near $5.85. Another has $7.01, with its basis unspecified, and a third has $7.03, up slightly from $7.02 a year earlier. Those figures are on different bases or sources, so the gap to the line is not the size of beat required. The wild card is acquired in-process R&D. Lilly's non-GAAP EPS includes those charges, and they took $3.03 off the second quarter. Even so, Q2 came in at $8.38. Watch the size of any acquired R&D charge in the October 29 release. A large one could pull the headline figure under $7.49 despite strong sales.