Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 26-November 1?

Analysis

Bitcoin was last trading at $79,897.59 on Coinbase at 22:01 UTC on October 26, a little under $2,000 above the $78,000 line. Binance's daily candle for the day showed a low of $79,368.67 and a high of $80,844.70. The lean is toward a dip, because the price is already hugging the threshold with most of the window still ahead. The recent tape supports that. Bitcoin has slipped under $80,000 several times in recent days and bounced each time, with reports putting the intraday low around $79,330. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $773 million in net outflows on Thursday and Friday, and a tech-stock sell-off has been weighing on risk assets. One market read noted that the latest drop met no forced exit in derivatives, with open interest slipping and funding barely positive, so the slide has been orderly rather than panicked. The calendar adds the shake. The Federal Reserve decision lands Wednesday, Coinbase and Strategy report earnings Thursday, and a $10.9 billion options expiry follows Friday. The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 fall just after the window closes, but analysts have flagged nerves about them already. The counterpoint is that the $79,000 area has held so far, and buyers keep showing up there. This is a move of roughly 2.4% that needs only one 1-minute Binance candle to print at or below $78,000. Watch Wednesday's Fed decision. If the $79,300 area gives way afterward, $78,000 is a short step away.