Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?

Analysis

Democrat Paige Cognetti leads Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan 51% to 46% among likely voters in Pennsylvania's 8th District, according to a Siena poll of 402 voters conducted Oct. 16 to 22, 2026. That is the only head-to-head measurement in the evidence gathered for this forecast, and it is why a Republican hold looks less likely than not. The reasons for the lean are specific. Reports indicate Cognetti, the Democratic mayor of Scranton, had the most favorable image of the eight candidates polled across four Pennsylvania districts. Voters gave her an 11-point edge when asked whom they would trust to handle corruption. Her campaign and its supporters have run numerous ads accusing Bresnahan of profiting from insider stock trading, and the poll suggests that message is landing. Still, the race is not settled. The five-point gap sits inside the district poll's reported margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 points, and the survey is a single snapshot with about 400 respondents. The evidence does not include an earlier PA-08 result, so whether the gap is widening or narrowing cannot be verified. Bresnahan, the incumbent, still drew 46%. The Republican path is a late move among undecided voters or a turnout surge on Nov. 3. The thing to watch is whether any further district polling confirms Cognetti's majority or shows Bresnahan closing the gap.