Five-year Treasury yield sits above 4.75% line as October winds down

The most concrete number is 4.839%. Reports indicate that was the five-year Treasury yield after the $70 billion note auction on Oct 27, little changed from before the results. The auction cleared at a high yield of 4.845%, according to one report. That leaves the five-year above 4.75%, the level the question needs it to fall below. One caveat comes first. The Treasury's own par yield curve page, which decides this question, could not be retrieved for this forecast, so every figure here is second-hand. The 4.839% reading is a market quote, not the official Treasury 5 Yr value. The forecast leans toward the yield not dipping below 4.75% in October, and the gap is the reason. Yields have come down from early-October highs, and reports say the 10-year was near 4.97% and the 2-year near 4.697% on Oct 27. But the five-year still needs to fall further, and only a few trading days remain in the window. The counterargument is that the Treasury rally is real. One report links it to worries about financing in a corner of the AI infrastructure market. A Federal Reserve decision was scheduled for Oct 28, with the consensus expecting the 3.75 to 4.00% range to be held. GDP and inflation figures were due the next morning. Watch the Thursday Oct 29 data. A sharp rally after those releases is the one thing most likely to push the five-year under the line.