XRP trades at $1.25 on Coinbase with the $1.20 line only a small step below

XRP last traded at 1.25 USD on Coinbase at 22:01 UTC on Oct. 29, according to a direct read of that venue. That leaves the $1.20 mark a few cents under the current price, with about 42 hours to go before the noon ET Binance candle on Saturday, Oct. 31. The quantitative baseline helps explain the lean. It uses recent realised volatility of 2.6% per day and assumes no drift, and on that footing a hold above $1.20 comes out as the clear favourite. It is a model estimate, not a retrieved forecast, and it ignores scheduled events and regime changes. The mood around the coin is soft, though. One report dated Oct. 29 describes XRP sliding toward support at $1.30 after the Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% with a hawkish tone. Another reports a decline blamed on profit-taking, slowing spot fund inflows and risk aversion. Those reports predate or differ slightly from the Coinbase print, so prices vary by source and venue. Analyst Ali, in a piece dated Oct. 25, flagged $1.26 as the lower edge of a channel running since August. He said a break could open the way to $1.11 and then $0.98, and pointed to whale selling and elevated exchange balances. The current price is already just under that $1.26 level, so that warning matters. One date to know: two Ripple escrow accounts still showed 500 million XRP each on Oct. 29. The next scheduled eligibility time is 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 31, after the noon candle, and reports stress that eligibility does not confirm any transfer. The thing to watch is whether XRP slips toward $1.11, the first level Ali named, before Saturday noon.