Core CPI hit 2.6% in September, but October's reading is still unpublished

The BLS reported on October 14 that the index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September (seasonally adjusted) and was up 2.6 percent over the year (not seasonally adjusted). That is the latest official core reading. The forecast leans against October landing on that same figure again. The deciding source does not yet publish the October figure. The BLS schedules that release for Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET, so the outcome is unobserved as of October 30. Why lean away from 2.6%? The evidence gives a moving target rather than a fixed one. One report dated October 20 put core CPI at 2.6% in September after 2.4% in August, with monthly gains of 0.3% in both months. A jump of two tenths in one month shows the annual figure can shift by a notch. With neighbouring readings on either side still possible, a single exact value is a narrow target. The evidence does not show which direction October will move, so this is a call about how narrow the target is, not a call on direction. Context: headline CPI rose 0.6 percent in September and 3.7 percent over the year, driven by gasoline, but that is a separate measure and does not decide this question. A separate gauge, core PCE, was reported at 3.1% year on year for September. Watch the November 10 BLS release itself. A core annual figure printed at one decimal is all that counts.