USGS catalogue shows zero magnitude 6.5 quakes with 40 hours left in window

A USGS catalogue query run at 13:01 UTC on 31 October found no earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher in the window that began at 12:00 AM ET on 26 October. About 40 hours of the window remain, running to 11:59 PM ET on Sunday 1 November. That is the count that decides this question, and it currently stands at zero. The near misses fall on the wrong side of the line. A magnitude 6.5 event in the Bonin Islands region was recorded on 25 October at 02:09 UTC, before the window opened. The largest quake inside the window was a magnitude 6.4 southeast of Easter Island on 29 October at 07:49 UTC, below the threshold. Magnitudes can be revised, but the catalogue lists it at 6.4. The forecast leans toward the count staying at zero because only the remaining hours matter. Over the past 365 days, magnitude 6.5 or larger events averaged 0.12 per day in the USGS record. In similar spells, a new event arrived within 40 hours about 17% of the time, and the count stayed at zero in about 83%. This is a statement about typical spells, not a guarantee. Large earthquakes arrive without warning, and one is still possible. The thing to watch is any new USGS entry of magnitude 6.5 or higher before the window closes, or a revision that lifts the Easter Island event from 6.4.