WTI's $104.12 close leaves $120 about $16 away as Iran risk builds

US West Texas Intermediate advanced 15.2% in October to reach $104.12 a barrel, according to reports. That leaves the contract roughly $16 short of $120, and it would need to reach that level in a single one-minute candle high during November. The rally has real fuel. Reports indicate oil rose late in October on fears that the Iran war could escalate after the US midterm elections, and an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz underlined supply risks. Brent December futures, which expired on Friday, October 30, settled at $117.64 after touching $118, per the same reporting. A shock after the November 3 vote could push prices sharply higher. Still, the forecast leans toward $120 not being touched. A move of that size in under a month needs a fresh escalation, not just the persistence of existing worries. Reports say seven OPEC+ producers tentatively backed holding December output targets unchanged, and that Gulf crude shipments continue to recover from wartime disruption. Neither is a bearish shock, but they do not add to supply fears. The case against is not trivial. Prices are at six-month highs, and the headline risk is one-sided toward disruption. These are reported developments and could change quickly. Watch for any military escalation or new shipping attack around Hormuz after the midterms. That is the one thing that could close the gap quickly.