Gemini 4 Carbon led Arena's text board by 11 points in the October 28 data

Arena's published leaderboard data, dated October 28 and read on November 2, put Google's Gemini 4 Carbon (High) first on the Text Arena Overall board with style control off. It scored 1540. Google's own Gemini 4 Argon (High) was second at 1529, an 11-point gap. That is a reading from the October 28 dataset, not a live view of the board. Google holds the top two spots in that snapshot. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5 (High) is third at 1516, followed by Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) at 1514 and Claude Opus 5 (Max) at 1508. A rival would have to pass both Google entries, not just one. That is why the forecast leans toward Google finishing first. Google's launch claims are context only and do not decide this question. Reports indicate Carbon ranks first on a separate Artificial Analysis index, at 59 points against 58 for Claude Opus 5.5 and 57 for GPT-6 Astra. That is a different test from the Arena board, and it comes from a launch Google is promoting. The decisive check is on November 30 at 12:00 PM ET, and the board can change before then. Reports also say Carbon's first access is limited to selected cybersecurity defenders, with a broader release to come later. The Arena entry is already listed, so the access limit may matter less here, but the supplied research does not say how it affects scoring. What to watch: whether any rival model lands above Carbon's 1540 on the Arena board before November 30.