Hunger Games prequel's independent tracking range of $80M to $100M stops short of $105M

The most recent independent range in the record, dated Oct. 30, puts the opening weekend for "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" at $80M to $100M. That tracking update sits entirely below the $105M line. An earlier long-range forecast, reported Oct. 29, had been lower, at $55 million to $65 million, so the trend has been upward. The case for a bigger number is presales. One tracker, EmpireCity Box Office, was reported on Oct. 28 as hinting that a $100M+ domestic opening looks like a real possibility. Another report said early sales were on par with the first "Wicked," though a tracking account made that claim and the studio has not released official numbers. These are early signals, not gross figures. The measure that decides this is the three-day domestic opening weekend, Nov. 20 to 22, as listed by The Numbers. That source was read on Nov. 2 and does not yet publish a figure for this film, so nothing there can be checked yet. Reaction to the premiere has been positive. Reports indicate film press calling it a "Perfect adaptation." That is a critical signal, not a measure of ticket sales, and it does not shift the tracking range by itself. The lean is that the film lands below $105M. Tracking tops out at $100M, and the bullish presale talk stops at roughly that level. Early-access screenings are listed for Nov. 18. The thing to watch is any updated tracking range that moves its top end above $100M.