Schweikert's retirement leaves Feely the reported underdog in Arizona's 1st District

Amish Shah took 48% against David Schweikert in 2024, and now the Republican congressman is gone. AP Decision Notes say Schweikert won 51.9% in 2024 and 50.4% in 2022, so the seat has been won narrowly. With no incumbent on the ballot, the forecast leans toward a Democratic win, though not decisively. The main reason is the open seat and the candidates. Shah is an emergency room doctor who narrowly lost last time. Republican Jay Feely is a former NFL kicker with Trump's backing. One national assessment published on November 1 calls Feely the underdog and treats flipping the district as part of a good night for Democrats. That is commentary, not a measured poll, and its basis is not quantified. Republicans still have real assets. Reports indicate the party keeps a voter registration advantage in the district. The district also reportedly gave Trump about 51% in 2024. Reporting says Republican strength there has slipped since Trump's election a decade ago. The district is described as affluent and well educated, in the northeast Phoenix suburbs. The national mood also points to Democrats, again based on commentary. One piece suggests a blue wave may be coming. That is a view, not a result, and a close race could still go to Feely. No votes were counted in the evidence reviewed, and there is no official or consensus call. The thing to watch is the early Maricopa County count. If Feely holds the Republican registration edge in the first returns, the Democratic lean weakens.