Core PCE ran at 3.1% in September, leaving October's 2.9% reading a long way off

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on October 29 that core PCE rose 3.1% over the 12 months through September, up from 3.0% in August. Core prices rose 0.3% in the month. That is the latest official reading of the measure, and it sits two tenths above the 2.9% this question asks about. The deciding source does not yet publish the October figure. The BEA page shows only headline PCE, not core, and the October release is scheduled for November 25, 2026. So the forecast leans against a 2.9% print on the September trend, not on the October number itself. For October to land at 2.9%, the annual rate would have to fall two tenths in one month, after rising a tenth in September. One report put the September monthly gain at 0.32% against a 0.34% model estimate, and the annual rate at 3.09%. Those figures are close to the published 3.1%, which is the reading that counts. Pressure runs the other way too. Fed officials projected core PCE at 3.4% for 2026 in their September projections, measured as the last three months of the year against the same months of 2025. One outlet's arithmetic says that needs about 0.33% a month from October through December. That is context, not a forecast of the October annual rate. Watch the November 25 release. A monthly core gain well below 0.3% is what would most change this picture.