Hormuz crossings of 2 on October 25 sit far below the 25-to-29 band

IMF PortWatch recorded 2 transits through the Strait of Hormuz on October 25, against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 a day, according to a report published on November 3. That is the latest PortWatch figure in the evidence, and it sits well below the 25 to 29 range the question asks about. The forecast leans against the strait landing in that band on November 30. Other counts show traffic is not flat. S&P Global's Commodities at Sea data, as reported, put crossings at 24 on October 30 and 28 on October 31, then 17 on November 1. Those are participant claims from a different tracker, and the reporting notes that services use different vessel definitions and detection methods, so they are not interchangeable with PortWatch. Separately, Kpler data, as reported, showed only five commodity vessels on one Saturday and none the following Sunday. The measure that settles this is a seven-day moving average, which smooths single strong days. Monthly PortWatch averages cited for 2026 were 5 in March, 9 in April and 7 in May, as relayed by a secondary report. S&P Global also said October traffic reached its highest monthly level since July, though that is a separate dataset. Safety remains a constraint. The IMO Secretary-General said on November 2 that he could not guarantee mines had been cleared and was urging ships to stay away. The thing to watch is whether PortWatch's own daily figures climb steadily toward the high twenties through November. A sustained run there would change the picture.