The question
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
The USGS catalogue, checked at 13:01 UTC on 8 November, listed five earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher in the window from 2 November 12:00 AM ET to 8 November 11:59 PM ET. They were a 6.1 in the Fiji region on 5 November, a 6.1 near Hasaki on 6 November, a 5.5 near Hasaki and a 5.5 near Hamakita on 7 November, and a 5.8 on the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge late on 7 November. About 16 hours of the window remained. That leaves room for one more event before the count passes six. The forecast leans toward six or fewer because the catalogue count is already at five, and getting past six would take two or more further qualifying quakes in the remaining hours. The same record says that over the past 365 days, magnitude 5.5+ events averaged 1.3 per day. It adds that a 168-hour window held six or fewer events 29% of the time. That is a reminder that this week has run lower than the typical pattern for a full window, and that a late cluster is not out of the question. One caution is that the Hamakita event drew news coverage with preliminary magnitudes of 5.5 to 5.7, and USGS lists it at 5.5. Magnitudes sit right at the threshold, so revisions could shift a count, and the rules allow 24 hours for revisions after a qualifying quake on the final day. Watch for a second large Japanese or other shock on 8 November, since aftershock warnings were issued there. Two more qualifying events would end this outcome.
Not financial advice. This analysis is AI-generated research for entertainment and information purposes only. Past accuracy does not predict future accuracy. Do not rely on this for investment, betting, or other financial decisions. You are solely responsible for any decisions you make.
Eroteme AI is 7 points more confident than the market
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Eroteme AI is 7 points more confident than the market
Market price at time of forecast