10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.86% on November 6, well short of 5.21%

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.86% on November 6, up 2 basis points on the day but down 8 on the week, according to one report. That leaves it clearly below the 5.21% line that the Treasury's Daily Par Yield Curve column must reach between November 3 and November 30. The forecast leans toward the yield not getting there. The recent direction has been down. Reports indicate the 10-year touched its lowest level since early September after the midterm elections on November 3, when tech shares and oil prices fell and Treasuries gained. One report put the yield at 4.82% after that low, and another cited a reading of 4.90% on November 4, down from a reported high of 5.31% on October 5. Do not read that as a clean downtrend. The rally stalled on Friday after strong jobs data, and one report said the data challenged forecasts of an economic slowdown. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further rate increases are likely, though timing and size are unsettled. Those are the kinds of signals that can push yields back up. Still, the yield would need to rise by a wide margin in under four weeks. The reported weekly move is a decline, not a climb. Auctions of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year debt are scheduled between November 9 and 12. One limit: the Treasury's own data was not verified for this forecast, so the figures above come from news reports. Watch the October CPI release, due at 08:30 ET on Tuesday, November 10. A hot print is the likeliest thing to send yields sharply higher.