September's core PCE printed 0.3%, but October forecasts cluster nearer 0.2%

The BEA's own release shows the core PCE price index rose 0.3 percent in September from the month before. That is the last official reading, and the October figure is not out. The BEA page was read on November 9 and does not yet publish it, and nothing cited from elsewhere is that number. The Personal Income and Outlays report is scheduled for November 25 at 8:30 a.m. EST. The lean is against a 0.3 percent print, and it rests on forecasts, not results. Barclays, as reported by Newsquawk, expects core CPI up 0.22 percent for October, which it estimates would translate into a 0.21 percent rise in core PCE. That rounds to 0.2 percent, the one-decimal precision the BEA reports. Other estimates point the same way. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast, cited in two reports, puts October core CPI at 0.21 percent. A survey cited by one report expects core CPI of 0.2 percent. These are estimates of CPI, a different gauge from core PCE, and one report notes the nowcast is sometimes off. The margin is thin. A core PCE figure around 0.25 percent or higher would round up to 0.3, and September's 0.3 shows the recent pace was not slow. Forecasts sit close to that line. Watch the October CPI report, due November 10. A core reading well above the 0.2 percent expected would make a 0.3 percent PCE print far more plausible.