England beat Croatia 7-0 in October and host them at Wembley on Thursday 12 November

England won 7-0 in Croatia on Saturday 3 October, a record defeat for the hosts, according to official UEFA records. The return fixture is at Wembley on Thursday 12 November, and that heavy scoreline is the main reason the forecast leans toward an England win in the first 90 minutes. Slaven Bilić has cut his group to 25. Luka Modrić and Ivan Perišić remain the reference points in what reports describe as a side still rebuilding after heavy scorelines. England have their own problem. Marc Guehi has been ruled out with a hip injury picked up at Manchester City, and Thomas Tuchel has called up Newcastle defender Dan Burn as his replacement. Captain Harry Kane could also become England's most-capped men's player if he features. Finishing first or second in the group would put them in the Nations League quarter-finals next March, and they then travel to Spain on Sunday 15 November. A football match can still be drawn, and Croatia have enough quality to make life awkward. The thing to watch is how England's back line looks with Guehi absent. A settled defence would keep the October pattern alive, while an unsettled one would give Croatia a way back into the game.