Fed's 10-2 hold at 3.75% to 4% leaves a December hike on the table

The Federal Reserve's October 28 statement, an official record, shows the FOMC voted 10 to 2 to keep the target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. That is the starting point for the December 8-9 meeting. This forecast leans toward the Fed not holding steady, meaning a move in rates is the selected outcome. The reason is a committee that looks restless. Reports indicate the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, then paused in October while saying inflation remains elevated and it wants more information before acting further. One report from November 6 says a number of officials have indicated a willingness to raise again before year's end. Another report says that in September, 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more quarter-point increase by the end of 2026. Two dissents in October also suggest the pause was not unanimous. The statement describes economic activity as expanding at a strong pace, which is hardly the language of a committee ready to relax. The counterargument is real. The October statement stressed gathering more information, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said there is "no base case" for December and called the current policy rate likely around or slightly below neutral. A hold is quite possible. The supplied evidence does not settle which way the committee will go. Watch the two jobs reports and the one inflation report due before the meeting. A hot inflation print would most strengthen the case for a hike on December 9, with the decision due at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.