USGS shows one magnitude 5.5+ quake so far in the 9 to 15 November window

The USGS catalogue, checked at 17:01 UTC on 11 November 2026, lists one qualifying event in the window: a magnitude 5.6 near Puerto San José on 10 November at 14:54 UTC. The window runs from 12:00 AM ET on 9 November to 11:59 PM ET on 15 November, which is 05:00 UTC on 9 November to 04:59 UTC on 16 November. About 108 hours remained at the check. A magnitude 6.4 quake near Lata in the Solomon Islands is listed at 03:34 UTC on 9 November. That is before the window opens at 05:00 UTC, so it is not part of the count. The forecast leans against exactly eight events because the count would have to climb from one to eight in the remaining time. The same USGS record says that over the past 365 days magnitude 5.5+ events averaged 1.28 per day. It also says a 168-hour window held exactly 8 events 11% of the time. In 23% of comparable spells, 8 or more events occurred within 108 hours. That is the figure for reaching or passing eight from a standing start, and it is not the same as landing on eight exactly. Because the target is a single exact number, overshooting is as much a miss as falling short. Earthquake counts fluctuate normally, and USGS notes that a temporary rise or fall worldwide is not a sign that a large quake is imminent. A large quake with a run of aftershocks above 5.5 is the main thing that could change the picture. Watch for that.