2-year Treasury yield at 4.56% on November 9 sits well below the 4.92% line

The latest reading of the deciding series is 4.56% for November 9, taken from the FRED copy of the 2-year constant-maturity yield. The Treasury's own par yield curve table was not checked directly for this forecast, and that limitation stands. The 4.92% line is a long way above that print. Market quotes have moved higher since. One report on Thursday, November 12, put the 2-year note at 4.7800%, up 5 basis points as trading resumed after the Veterans Day closure. Another reported a two-week high of 4.7756%. These are live market quotes, not the Treasury series, so they are context only. Even so, they remain below 4.92%. The reason for the upward pressure is plain enough. Reports say Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on November 10 that he leans toward a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 meeting. He said a 50 basis point hike should be considered if inflation does not cool. October consumer prices rose 0.4% after a 0.6% rise in September, as reported. A separate model estimate, built from the November 9 reading and recent daily volatility, puts the chance of a qualifying print as low. It ignores scheduled data and Fed events. So the forecast leans toward the yield falling short of 4.92% by November 30. The thing to watch is whether more hawkish Fed commentary, or the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday, November 18, push the official 2-year reading sharply higher.