Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?

Analysis

Slight lean · No 55.51%. This is a modest probability edge, not a high-certainty outcome. Erling Haaland arrives with a staggering record of 62 goals in 55 caps for Norway, and reports suggest he and Martin Odegaard are both set to start, with Oscar Bobb and Antonio Nusa also in the mix. That firepower is real, but it does not translate automatically into a win against a well organised Denmark side. Norway will be missing Alexander Sorloth through injury, leaving Haaland as the main established central attacking presence alongside Jorgen Strand Larsen, according to reports. Losing a recognised out and out striker option thins the squad's attacking depth even with Haaland's brilliance up front. On the Danish side, reports indicate Andreas Christensen's return to fitness is viewed as a major positive, and he is expected to be a notable starter for Denmark, which strengthens a defence that will need to contain Haaland and company. A settled back line built around a fit Christensen gives Denmark a platform to compete rather than simply absorb pressure. Put together, this points to a contest where Norway's attacking talent is offset by squad gaps and a Denmark side rebuilding its defensive solidity, which is why the outcome leans toward Norway failing to take the win outright. The single thing to watch is whether Christensen holds up physically through ninety minutes, since his fitness is the main swing factor for Denmark's ability to keep this close.