No 59.22%: US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?

Slight lean · No 59.22%. This is a modest probability edge, not a high-certainty outcome. Iranian media reported explosions there early on Tuesday, November 3. The US said its attacks were defensive, aimed at missile sites and boats trying to lay mines. Those are participant accounts, not independent verification, and they predate the window that counts for this question. The forecast leans toward the ceasefire failing, meaning a qualifying US strike on Iranian territory before November 30. The pressure is visible. Reports say Trump has for weeks threatened a full-scale bombardment once the US elections passed. Reports also say US officials described the military as completing preparations for a possible return to major combat operations, with extra assets heading to the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly pressed for renewed strikes in a call over the weekend. There are real brakes. Trump acknowledged on Tuesday night that the war was partly to blame for the Republican midterm losses, though he said he would have done it again. Vice President JD Vance reportedly reached out about conditions for a ceasefire and negotiations. Qatari mediators are also reportedly seeking backing for a draft agreement that could restart direct talks within days. Ships are still coming under attack in the Strait of Hormuz, and the question counts only strikes that land on Iranian territory. The thing to watch is whether the Qatari draft wins US and Iranian backing in the coming days. If it does, the chance of a full return to bombing falls.