Aston Villa look the stronger side to beat Fulham at Villa Park

Slight lean · Yes 55.84%. This is a modest probability edge, not a high-certainty outcome. Aston Villa beat Manchester City 2-1 at home on 24 October, with Nicolas Jackson scoring both goals. It ended City's perfect start to the Premier League season and was Villa's fourth successive win over them at Villa Park. It also extended an outstanding run of six wins from seven games in all competitions. The rating prior, which is built from results only and includes home advantage, gives Villa a 55% chance of winning, with a 26% draw and a 20% Fulham win. This forecast sits very close to that baseline. The recent form and the Villa Park setting point the same way, so there is little reason to move far from it. Fulham arrive in decent shape too. They won 1-0 at Coventry on 24 October, with Oscar Bobb scoring in the 80th minute. That was not a dominant display, but it was back-to-back wins for Alvaro Arbeloa's side. Only a regulation-time win counts here, so a draw is a real route to the opposite outcome. On team news, Amadou Onana is out with a ruptured ACL and has no return date. Modou Keba Cisse is a minor doubt with a groin problem but is back in team training, and no Villa player is suspended. Lineups for the Saturday 31 October kick-off at 20:00 are not yet confirmed. The thing to watch is the Villa team sheet. If Cisse is fit and Jackson keeps his place, the lean toward Villa looks well founded.