Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?

Analysis

Slight lean · No 56.18%. This is a modest probability edge, not a high-certainty outcome. Manchester United have gone seven games without a win, and the latest was a 4-1 defeat at Como in the Champions League on 21 October. Michael Carrick stays in charge for Sunday's Premier League game against Bournemouth at Old Trafford, with a 14:00 GMT kick-off. Reports say he apologised to supporters at full-time in Italy. The rating prior, built from results only, gives United a 52% chance of a win, with 26% for a draw and 22% for a Bournemouth win. This forecast leans away from that. It backs United not winning, which covers a draw as well as a Bournemouth win, so it is not a claim that the visitors will win. The evidence explains the move. United are described as winless in seven games, and captain Bruno Fernandes appeared to question the side's approach after Como. Another report says they have not beaten Bournemouth in six meetings. The club's October is still without a victory. There are points in United's favour. Leny Yoro is back after suspension in the Champions League game. Bournemouth beat ten-man Sunderland 2-0 for their first league win of the season at the seventh attempt, and Marco Rose says Alex Tóth is out for some weeks with a muscle injury. The thing to watch is how United respond to the pressure on Carrick in the opening spell. A fast, composed start at Old Trafford would do the most to undercut this lean.