Argentina vs Uruguay prediction

Argentina's latest result was a 3-0 home win over Benin on 6 October, and it came after a 7-0 win over Burkina Faso on 4 October and a 4-0 win over Bolivia on 1 October. Those are the three most recent results listed for them, ahead of a 0-1 loss away at Spain on 19 July and a 2-1 win away at England on 15 July. The ratings reinforce the lean. World Football Elo puts Argentina at 2175, ranked 2nd, and Uruguay at 1851, ranked 19th. The rating model, which includes a 60 Elo home advantage and covers regulation time, gives Argentina a win at 83%, a draw at 14% and a Uruguay win at 3%. Our forecast sits below that figure because the ratings leave out team news. Uruguay arrive in decent form, with a 6-1 win away at India on 6 October and a 4-1 win away at South Korea on 28 September, though they lost 1-3 away at Japan on 24 September. Both sides last played 38 days before the forecast, so rest does not separate them. Reports say Darwin Núñez has three goals in his last two international appearances, and Federico Valverde is expected back after missing three games through injury. The main doubt is in goal. Emiliano Martínez trained with a special face mask after a jaw fracture, and reports say he will start only if he proves he has fully recovered. His fitness is the thing to watch before the Friday 13 November kickoff at La Bombonera.