Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest prediction

Forest arrive at Villa Park flying high with 10 games unbeaten and that brilliant 3-1 win at Chelsea still fresh, but this feels like where their European dream hits the buffers. Villa might be stuttering in the league with three straight defeats, but their home record in Europe tells a different story — nine wins on the bounce at Villa Park in continental competition. Unai Emery knows how to navigate these two-legged affairs, and he's got the crowd behind him. The injury list doesn't help Forest's cause either. Morgan Gibbs-White facing a late fitness test after that nasty head knock, plus doubts over Murillo and Ola Aina. That's key personnel when you're trying to defend a slender lead. Sure, Forest can sit deep and hit Villa on the break, but Emery's boys will throw everything at this. The aggregate situation forces Villa to attack, which could create chances for Forest, but it also means sustained pressure on a makeshift defence. I'd back Villa to get the job done — Forest have done brilliantly to get this far, but 20% feels about right for their chances of nicking this in 90 minutes.