Manchester City vs Crystal Palace prediction

This one sits in the classic 'big favourite at home' bracket and City have earned that status against Palace specifically — unbeaten in the last eight league meetings with five wins and three draws. The Etihad has been a fortress and Palace, comfortable in mid-table at 44 points with nothing to play for in the league, are exactly the kind of opponent you'd expect City to dispatch. That said, I'm not jumping in at the prices the market is quoting. City have shown they're vulnerable this season — they've dropped points to mid-table sides in recent weeks, including a messy 3-3 with Everton, and the wider title picture suggests they haven't been quite as ruthless as the headline narrative implies. Rotation risk before a cup final is real, and Palace are no pushovers — they're still in European competition and looked sharp drawing at Goodison. The head-to-head and home advantage are doing a lot of the heavy lifting here. For me, City win this comfortably more often than not, but Palace can nick a draw or pinch something more than one time in five. I'd back City but the price needs to be fair — not the steamed-in favourite line.