Ducks vs Maple Leafs prediction

Market has Leafs at 36.5% but bookmakers show 32.4% - suggests slight overvaluation. Matthews' season-ending injury removes Toronto's best player and captain, crippling their already struggling 17th-ranked offense. Leafs are in poor form (31-30-13, 5-1 loss to St. Louis) while Ducks lead Pacific Division at 41-28-4. The 6-game head-to-head winning streak for Toronto is notable, but that was with a healthy Matthews. Revenge motivation exists after the Gudas hit, but Ducks have home ice advantage and better current form. Ducks' recent inconsistency (blowing 3-0 lead vs Edmonton) creates some uncertainty, but the personnel advantage with Matthews out should outweigh Toronto's historical dominance in this matchup. Market appears to underweight impact of losing franchise cornerstone.