Highest Temperature in Seoul on April 4 prediction

Reference class: Short-range weather forecasts exceeding projections by 2+ degrees during active weather ~20%. KMA models project 13-15°C at Incheon Airport with incoming frontal system bringing clouds and midday rain on April 4. Active precipitation and overcast conditions will suppress solar heating and limit temperature peaks. Recent 20°C+ warmth ending due to this weather system. Adjusting -3pp for strong model consensus, -2pp for rain/clouds, +3pp for possible brief clearing scenarios, +2pp for market information edge. Independent: 20%. Market at 23.1% - minimal 3pp divergence. Given calibration issues, staying close to market odds.