Core CPI YoY November 2026 prediction

The BLS did not publish a year-over-year core rate in its October report, released on November 10, because last year's government shutdown prevented price collection for October 2025. That leaves the official annual comparison for the latest month missing, and the November reading is scheduled for Thursday, December 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The deciding source, the BLS CPI releases page, was read on November 13 and does not yet carry the November 12-month core figure. Nothing cited here from elsewhere is that figure. What exists is context. The BLS said core prices rose 0.3 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis. One news report said core rose 0.3% for the third month running. It also said that, if October 2025 prices are assumed to sit halfway between September and November, core inflation would have risen to 2.8% from 2.6%. That is an assumption-based estimate, not a BLS number. Another report estimated October core at 2.6% over the year, in line with September. So the estimates disagree, and the forecast leans against an exact 2.8% print. The contract resolves on a single rounded decimal, so landing on one value is a narrow target. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast for November monthly core, a model output and not an annual forecast, ranged from 0.14 to 0.26 across its readings. The thing to watch is the December 10 release and how BLS handles the missing October 2025 base in its annual figure.