S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 31 prediction

Current market odds of 90% Up seem overly optimistic given SPY is already down -0.33% intraday. Multiple bearish factors suggest downside bias: Wolfe Research targets 5% S&P 500 drop to 6030 amid geopolitical risks and multiple compression concerns. VIX above 30 signals continued volatility. Goldman cut eurozone GDP forecasts on energy disruptions. While high volume (99.3M) could enable intraday recovery, the combination of negative current performance, analyst downside calls, and geopolitical headwinds from Strait of Hormuz conflict creates headwinds. Prediction market appears to be fighting the current trend - SPY negative performance suggests momentum toward Down resolution. The 90% Up probability doesn't adequately reflect these near-term pressures and current market action.