AL-02 House Election Winner prediction

An undated FEC finance table lists Democrat Shomari Figures as the AL-02 incumbent, with $793,769 in receipts. The same table lists Republican Rhett Marques at $1,078,197 and Joshua McKee at $462,054. Republicans are clearly raising money here, but that does not show who will win in November. The forecast leans against a Republican win because the evidence offers no sign that a challenger has overtaken the incumbent. The packet has no polls, no primary results, no confirmed nominees and no data on the district's partisan makeup. The only candidate labeled incumbent is Figures. The picture is muddied by a labeling conflict. Marques and McKee filed on 05/20/2026 for an "Open seat", while the finance table calls Figures the incumbent. Alabama's governor signed a proclamation on May 12, 2026 moving the primary for Districts 1, 2, 6 and 7 to August 11, 2026. That could point to a change in district lines, but the records do not say so, and any partisan effect is unverified. A Republican campaign finance edge, including one filer with more reported cash on hand than Figures, makes this a plausible challenge. It stays a lean, not a certainty, because the general election on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 is still ahead. The thing to watch is the August 11 primary. It will show who the Republican nominee is, and it may clarify whether the district map has changed.