Brazil Presidential Election Second Round Abroad prediction

Electoral court figures put Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.26% and Lula at 44.89% with 98.69% of the national first-round vote counted. Overseas, though, the reported picture is different, and it is why the forecast leans toward Lula taking the most votes abroad on October 25. Reports indicate Lula led partial overseas tallies in the first round, including in Portugal, Germany, France and Spain. He reportedly won far more countries than his rival, 31 to 9 at one point. In 2022, Lula took 47.17% abroad to Jair Bolsonaro's 41.61%, according to the figures supplied. The overseas electorate has leaned more toward Lula than the national one. Lula's Portugal share reportedly fell from 60.4% in 2022 to 52.45%. Country counts can also hide the big electorates. The United States, the largest overseas electorate, went to Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. Flávio reportedly won Japan, Thailand and Israel. Flávio also beat the polls at home. The thing to watch is the United States vote. If Flávio's reported strength there and in Japan grows, it could cancel Lula's European leads.