Claude's status page logged a 09:58 UTC authentication incident on Nov. 13
The question
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in November 2026?
Eroteme AI picked No, but the market had Yes as the favourite at 76% when this forecast was made.
The company said it was investigating users authenticating to Claude.ai and Claude Code, and the record lists claude.ai among the affected components. The forecast leans towards fewer than 5 days of downtime not happening in November. The question turns on the number of November days when the claude.ai box on the uptime page shows any colour other than green. The deciding page was read on Nov. 13, but the text returned held no daily status boxes, so the current count of non-green days is not published in what we retrieved. That is the limitation, stated plainly. What the incident records do show is a run of entries. A Nov. 8 record gives impact from 00:18 PT to 00:32 PT. A Nov. 10 entry covers overloaded errors on Fable 5.2 and Mythos 5.2 for four minutes. A Nov. 12 incident on the Microsoft 365 connector is listed as affecting claude.ai and Claude Cowork, and was still unresolved in the record. Whether each of these turns the claude.ai box non-green is not established here. An earlier page reading from October shows days coloured in yellow shades alongside green ones, including Oct. 5 and Oct. 6. That is context only, not a November count. Any single brief incident can colour a whole day, so a sceptic would expect the tally to climb. The thing to watch is the claude.ai boxes for Nov. 8, 10, 12 and 13 once the uptime page publishes them.
Not financial advice. This analysis is AI-generated research for entertainment and information purposes only. Past accuracy does not predict future accuracy. Do not rely on this for investment, betting, or other financial decisions. You are solely responsible for any decisions you make.
AI says 65% No, market says 76% Yes
Market price at time of forecast
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AI says 65% No, market says 76% Yes
Market price at time of forecast