Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Analysis

A $120 Crude Oil price by March 31, 2026, from current ~$78 implies an extraordinary 50%+ surge within weeks. While geopolitical tensions (Middle East threats, Houthi attacks) provide bullish impetus and OPEC+ cuts tighten supply, these factors are unlikely to drive such a monumental increase in such a short timeframe. A move of this magnitude would require an immediate, massive, and sustained supply disruption (e.g., 5M+ bpd) far beyond current scenarios. Strong bearish headwinds like record US production, weak global demand (China, IEA forecast cuts), and persistent recession fears actively cap upside. The market's 7.5% probability seems to adequately reflect the extreme unlikelihood of this outcome.