Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 24?

Analysis

Market consensus strongly favors 20-21°C (67.5% combined) based on MetService ensemble models and historical March averages (20.5°C at Kelburn). Weather conditions - weak high pressure ridge with mild southerlies - support this range. While some Ventusky runs show cooler 16-18°C, these appear to be conservative outliers. The 19°C outcome sits uncomfortably between the cooler outlier models and mainstream 20-21°C consensus. With 24-hour forecast accuracy typically high and no contradictory meteorological signals, the 18% market probability for exactly 19°C appears fair but potentially inflated. The clustering effect around 20-21°C suggests temperatures more likely to reach that range than settle precisely at 19°C.