Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz returns to Flushing Meadows as defending champion. He has not played a competitive singles match since April, when a wrist injury forced him out of both the French Open and Wimbledon. His only match play since then came in mixed doubles alongside Serena Williams. That quarterfinal run showed he could compete, but it settled nothing about whether his body can survive seven best-of-five matches over two weeks. Jannik Sinner's knee-related withdrawal genuinely helps. It removes the rival who beat Alcaraz in three of their last four meetings. But it doesn't clear the path. Alexander Zverev arrives as top seed and reigning French Open champion with real hard-court momentum. Novak Djokovic sits in Alcaraz's own half, threatening a brutal semifinal roadblock before any final is even reached. Roman Safiullin, fresh off a strong Wimbledon run, opens against Alcaraz in round one. He is exactly the kind of dangerous floater who exposes a rusty champion early. Alcaraz still owns the highest ceiling in the draw and a strong record in New York. But talent alone doesn't erase roughly four months away from singles competition. Grand Slam titles demand match sharpness and physical endurance that mixed doubles cannot replicate. History is full of comeback runs that unravel in the second week once the legs and serve start to fade. One thing to watch: how cleanly Alcaraz serves and moves against Safiullin in round one. Any sign of wrist hesitation there would be telling.