Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Analysis

Arthur Fils arrives at Flushing Meadows playing the best tennis of his career. His run to the Cincinnati Masters title, capped by a gritty three-set win over Frances Tiafoe, pushed him to a career-high No. 11 and a 10th seed at the US Open. He opens against Stefanos Tsitsipas, a player he has beaten in all five previous meetings. The first round looks navigable. Everything after that is the problem. Fils sits in defending champion Carlos Alcaraz's quarter, with a projected route through Ben Shelton before a potential clash with Alcaraz himself. Novak Djokovic or top seed Alexander Zverev lurk beyond that. Market pricing already reflects this picture: Alcaraz and Zverev draw the bulk of outright interest following Jannik Sinner's withdrawal, while Fils sits in a clearly secondary tier alongside Taylor Fritz and Rafael Jodar. Winning this tournament means winning seven consecutive matches. Several of those would be best-of-five contests against players with far deeper major experience. Fils also carries a durability question, having missed four of the last five majors, and he heads into this event immediately after a taxing Cincinnati campaign. Form and physical freshness rarely coexist for a first-time deep major run. He is a dangerous outsider, not the favourite. One thing to watch: how Alcaraz looks in his early rounds coming off a long wrist layoff. Any visible rust there is the development that would make this picture genuinely closer.