Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz arrives at Flushing Meadows as defending champion and top-ranked threat. But this is no ordinary title defence. He has not played a competitive singles match since mid-April, after a right wrist problem sidelined him through the entire clay and grass seasons. That is nearly five months without tournament rhythm heading into best-of-five tennis. The warm-up signs have been mixed at best. He lost a mixed doubles quarterfinal alongside Serena Williams and reportedly dropped a practice set 6-1 to a far lower-ranked hitting partner. His opener against an in-form Roman Safiullin, who has reached the fourth round here before, is a genuine early test, not a formality. Jannik Sinner's withdrawal clears one obstacle, but it hardly clears the path. Alexander Zverev arrives with a French Open title and a Wimbledon final already banked this year, plus steadier hard-court form. Novak Djokovic looms in the same half of the draw. Seven best-of-five matches over two weeks punish any lingering physical doubt. Plenty of talented players have looked a half-step slow after long layoffs and exited early. Alcaraz remains the most gifted player in the field when fully sharp. But talent alone does not answer questions about match fitness and wrist stability. The bunched, competitive field makes this far from a foregone conclusion. One thing to watch: whether his forehand velocity and movement look free through the first two rounds. If the wrist holds and the rust disappears quickly, he becomes far harder to stop as the tournament progresses.