Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Analysis

Cam Schlittler takes the mound for New York with an 11-6 record and a 2.16 ERA. Boston counters with Patrick Sandoval, who is 1-2 with a 4.54 ERA. That is about as clear a starting pitching gap as you will find this late in the season. New York also carries the better overall record, 75-58 to Boston's 73-60, and hosts this game at Yankee Stadium, where the team has gone 34-30. Home field plus the sharper arm is a real combination, not just a narrative. Boston's case is not nothing. The Red Sox have played the American League's hottest baseball since late June. They hold a 5-4 edge in the season series and have gone 39-28 on the road. New York is also without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, which keeps this from being a lopsided call. But a hot stretch built over many games does not erase what happens when a lineup faces a pitcher this in-form on his own mound. Add it together and New York looks like the sounder side for this particular matchup, even accounting for the missing bats. Boston's clearest path is jumping Schlittler early, before New York's bullpen takes control. One thing to watch: Schlittler's pitch count and workload through the middle innings. Any early trouble there is Boston's best route to stealing this game.